The Use of Model Selection for Detecting Unknown Changepoints
M.N. Azam and M.L. King (2003). The Use of Model Selection for Detecting Unknown Changepoints. Journal of Statistical Research, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 167-182.
Abstract
This paper demonstrates that information criteria (IC) model selection procedures can be applied to detect a possible changepoint of unknown timing in a linear regression model. Our aim is to find which criteria among existing IC has the best ability to detect a change in a particular regression coefficient when the timing of the changepoint is unknown. We use, as our measure of the ability of a criterion to detect a changepoint, the average mean probability of correct selection (AMPCS) when the model is being selected from a group of alternative models. The AMPCS criterion suggests Hocking’s criterion is the best IC procedure for small samples and BIC is best for large samples.
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